Arms Control Wonk

4 Responses to “NORK Test Still Small (Not)”

1. 

   Tim | May 25, 2009

   Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t it rather hard to get TWO 1 kt fizzles out of a device designed for 10-20kt? I was under the impression that yields for 10-20kt devices tended to be something like 90% full yield, 10% some random value in between (what is the actual expected distribution?)

   Either NK quality control REALLY sucks (getting an ‘easy’ test wrong twice??), or is this evidence that they are trying something aggressive, like trying to skip directly to a minaturized device…

   Experts?
2. 

   Daryl Press | May 25, 2009

   Hi Jeffrey (and others),

   Good posting.

   What’s the conventional wisdom on why the NK detonations have both been so small? Problems with the timing of the implosion? Contaminated Pu?

   Daryl
3. 

   Jeffrey Lewis | May 25, 2009

   Well, that was a cluster-you-know-what this morning.

   2-6 kt as far as I can tell.
4. 

   FOARP | May 25, 2009

   Russians way over-estimating again, do those guys never learn?